Covid Crystal Ball, for Winter and Fall

Some answers based on future trends and the best available evidence

Here are common questions I’m fielding right now, as I gaze deeply into the nebulous swirl of possible answers:

Are the new bivalent boosters working?

Should I fear the storm of new variants, like XBB and BQ1.1?

When is the next wave going to hit… in a couple weeks?

Are antivirals like Paxlovid and remdesivir still worth taking when we get sick?

Can long haul symptoms actually be cured by Paxlovid?

No one is wearing masks at the World Series and other sporting events - but what does a Japanese Baseball crowd look like right now?

If I had a strong reaction to my shots and boosters, does that mean I am more protected against Covid?

Are rapid antigen tests still helpful and reliable?

If I’ve already had Covid, should I really worry about getting it again?

Why are children’s hospitals so full of sick kids this year?

Sustaining an interest in these topics, when so many have completely moved on, is based upon these assumptions:

1. Covid is still a roll of the dice - mild versus serious illness, complete recovery versus long term problems.

2. Protecting yourself and others is not an all-or-nothing proposition. You can still make situational choices.

3. Age is still the most important factor to consider in terms of gauging your risk.

4. Safer holiday get togethers are a tricky period of negotiation and planning.

5. We should keep trying not to get sick, even as we live our lives.

   So here’s what I’m seeing in the cloudy depths, with concise answers:

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